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Tuesday, October 13, 2026 · UTC
Asteroids & Planetary Defense

Eight Polymarket markets resolved or shifted sharply on 10 October 2026

All recorded settlements and double-digit probability moves were logged on 2026-10-10 across sports, creator and public figure markets.

Caleb Mbeki
Planetary Science Reporter
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Stands on 8 first-party readings of the Polymarket record, not reporting.
Markets see sharp shifts and settlements
Markets see sharp shifts and settlements AI illustrationhow this picture was made
Polymarket data shows eight prediction markets either resolved final outcomes or recorded double-digit probability shifts on 10 October 2026. Five football match markets settled that day. Chengdu Rongcheng FC, Amed Sportif and Club León FC markets settled near 0%. The exact score market for Arsenal 2 - 1 Leeds United and the 1. FC Magdeburg win market settled near 100%. Two markets tracking first week view counts for MrBeast's next video moved in opposite directions. The bracket for 215 to 223 million views fell 16 points to 26%. The bracket for 207 to 215 million views rose 20 points to 72%. A market tracking Elon Musk's tweet volume over the three day period ending 10 October rose 38 points to 89%.
Proof8 sources · 1 publisher · signed
Background reading
  1. On Polymarket, the market "Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-10-10?" resolved on 2026-10-10, settling near 0% on $51,920 of volume. · DRM3 Polymarket the fact record
  2. On Polymarket, the market "Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Leeds United FC?" resolved on 2026-10-10, settling near 100% on $54,249 of volume. · DRM3 Polymarket the fact record
  3. On Polymarket, the market "Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-10-10?" resolved on 2026-10-10, settling near 100% on $101,439 of volume. · DRM3 Polymarket the fact record
  4. On Polymarket, the market "Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-10-10?" resolved on 2026-10-10, settling near 0% on $353,053 of volume. · DRM3 Polymarket the fact record
  5. On Polymarket, the market "Will MrBeast's next video get between 215 and 223 million views on week 1?" moved from 43% to 26% on 2026-10-10, a 16-point fall on $13,309 of volume. · DRM3 Polymarket the fact record
  6. On Polymarket, the market "Will MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?" moved from 53% to 72% on 2026-10-10, a 20-point rise on $17,472 of volume. · DRM3 Polymarket the fact record
  7. On Polymarket, the market "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?" moved from 52% to 89% on 2026-10-10, a 38-point rise on $82,227 of volume. · DRM3 Polymarket the fact record
  8. On Polymarket, the market "Will Club León FC win on 2026-10-09?" resolved on 2026-10-10, settling near 0% on $124,901 of volume. · DRM3 Polymarket the fact record
Read directly from the Polymarket record, not from anyone's report of it.